During his appearance on HRT’s Dnevnik (available here, archived here), Dr. Tonči Tadić, a physicist and nuclear energy expert, argued that Trgovska Gora is a suitable location for radioactive waste disposal, stating that it was chosen based on a decade-long study. (The full broadcast is available on the HRTi platform under Dnevnik 2, November 13, 2024.)

Discussing the planned construction of the Radioactive Waste Disposal Center at the former Čerkezovac military barracks in the municipality of Dvor, Tadić asserted that it is “a location with the lowest probability of an earthquake, even for an earthquake with a recurrence interval of 10,000 years.” He also stated that the location is “much less risky than any other in Croatia” and that “Croatia has no better location for this purpose.”

What Do Official Data Say?

To verify Dr. Tadić’s claim that Čerkezovac on Trgovska Gora has the lowest probability of an earthquake, even for an earthquake with a recurrence interval of 10,000 years, we consulted official data from the Geophysics Department of the Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb (PMF), which has produced Croatia’s seismic hazard maps.

In 2011, PMF created updated seismic hazard maps for recurrence intervals of 475 and 95 years. These replaced outdated maps from 1987, which were no longer scientifically reliable. The 2011 maps are now part of Croatia’s General Rules on Seismic Actions and national building standards, which regulate seismic risks for construction. Furthermore, seismic hazard maps with a recurrence interval of 10,000 years are no longer legally used in Croatia because they express seismic force through earthquake intensity rather than ground acceleration, which is the current European standard.

Aside from referencing an outdated and legally inapplicable seismic map, Dr. Tadić’s claim that Čerkezovac has the lowest probability of an earthquake is also questionable. Analysis of the official seismic hazard maps for recurrence intervals of 475 and 95 years contradicts his statements.

According to the 95-year recurrence interval map, Čerkezovac is in a zone marked with a ground acceleration value of 0.6, placing it in the same seismic risk category as large parts of Croatia (see the map). The map shows that areas such as Baranja, Osijek, Vukovar, Vinkovci, and Ilok have a lower seismic risk than Čerkezovac.

Applying the same analysis to the 475-year recurrence interval map leads to similar conclusions. Čerkezovac does not qualify as the location with the lowest earthquake probability. It falls into a seismic zone with a ground acceleration value of 0.10, while many other parts of Croatia have a lower seismic risk. Cities such as Pula, Vukovar, and Ilok, with a seismic value of 0.08, are in a lower-risk category than Čerkezovac.

Seismic hazard maps are based on bedrock conditions (Type A soil). However, various soil layers between the bedrock and the surface can amplify seismic effects. Therefore, a precise seismic risk assessment requires seismic microzoning or a detailed site-specific soil study.

Key Study Still in Progress

To obtain data on the microseismic zoning of Čerkezovac, we contacted the Fund for Financing the Decommissioning of the Krško Nuclear Power Plant and Radioactive Waste Management, which conducted a seismic hazard study as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA). The Fund responded that the data could not be disclosed until the EIA is finalized. However, preliminary findings indicate that while the Čerkezovac site is in a relatively low tectonic activity zone, it is near more seismically active regions, where strong earthquakes – like the one in Petrinja – can occur.

Given these facts, Dr. Tadić’s statement that the site is “much less risky than anywhere else in Croatia” is not supported by available data. Official seismic maps clearly show that Croatia has areas with equal or lower earthquake risks than Čerkezovac. Additionally, without the final EIA report, it is premature to claim that Trgovska Gora is the best and safest location for radioactive waste disposal.

Since the 10,000-year seismic hazard map is no longer legally used; official seismic hazard maps do not confirm that Čerkezovac has the lowest earthquake probability; and the detailed seismic hazard study is not yet publicly available, Tadić’s claims are not supported by existing scientific and expert data. At this stage, without the final EIA and seismic hazard studies, there is no measurable or scientifically verified confirmation that Čerkezovac is the best and safest location in Croatia for radioactive waste disposal.

 

Funded by the European Union – NextGenerationEU.

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This post is also available in: Hrvatski