At a press conference held on December 4 in the Croatian Parliament and organized by the Most parliamentary group, Nikola Grmoja, Member of Parliament and vice president of Most, stated that there are more foreign workers in Croatia than members of the Serbian national minority.
Presenting the idea of a “population replacement,” he said: “According to official data, there are about 130,000 members of the Serbian national minority in Croatia, that is the number registered, and currently, there are more foreign workers in Croatia than members of the largest national minority. Most will protect Croatian identity, culture, the safety of our citizens, families, women, and children.” (available here at 10:12). This statement was also reported by several media outlets (examples: here, here, here).
To verify this claim, it is necessary to compare data on the number of Serbs in Croatia according to the most recent census with the number of foreign workers based on official statistics. First, according to data published on the website of the Office for Human Rights of National Minorities of the Government of the Republic of Croatia, the number of members of the Serbian national minority in Croatia is 123,892. Their website states that, according to the Croatian Bureau of Statistics and the 2021 Population Census, there are a total of 240,079 members of national minorities in the Republic of Croatia, of which 123,892 are members of the Serbian minority. Although Nikola Grmoja gave an approximate figure for the largest national minority, his statement regarding their number is accurate, as Serbs are indeed the largest national minority according to statistical data.
However, the number of foreign workers is not as easy to determine with the same precision.
According to data from the Ministry of the Interior (MUP), between January 1 and December 31, 2024, a total of 206,529 residence and work permits were issued under the Aliens Act. The majority of permits were issued for work in construction (75,071), tourism and hospitality (56,228), industry (28,486), transport and communications (16,149), and trade (7,925) (available here, archived here). Of the total number of permits issued, 132,208 were for new employment, 56,898 were for permit renewals, and 17,423 were for seasonal workers. The largest number of permits were issued to citizens of the following countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina – 38,100, Nepal – 35,635, Serbia – 27,988, India – 20,502, the Philippines – 14,680, North Macedonia – 13,855, Bangladesh – 13,630, Kosovo – 8,139, Uzbekistan – 6,959, Egypt – 6,672.
Since this number covers the entire calendar year, it does not show how many foreign workers were residing or working in Croatia at a specific moment. Monthly statistics recorded throughout 2024 are accumulated month by month, resulting in the cumulative figure of 206,529 residence and work permits issued during the entire year.
Data from the Croatian Pension Insurance Institute (HZMO) also does not precisely reflect the actual number of foreign workers at a given moment. Therefore, the most reliable comparison comes from an official statement by the Minister of the Interior, Davor Božinović. On October 24, 2024, he presented figures in Parliament on the number of foreign workers in Croatia. While introducing legislative changes regulating the admission of foreign workers, Božinović stated that “at this moment (October 2024), there are 121,376 foreign workers from third countries and 10,000 from EU member states on the Croatian labor market.” That is, approximately 132,000 foreigners. He added that by October 2024, 171,140 residence and work permits had been issued to foreigners, compared to 81,995 in 2021, noting that some had applied more than once and some never came to Croatia (available here, archived here).
Although the number of residence and work permits issued in 2024 exceeds the number of members of the Serbian national minority according to the latest census (123,892), this does not mean that all permit holders are simultaneously present and working in Croatia. The Minister of the Interior stated that, in October 2024, there were around 132,000 foreign workers on the labor market, which slightly exceeds the number of Serbian minority members. However, considering his note that some applied multiple times and some never came to Croatia, it is clear that statistical data is not entirely precise and that the number of issued permits does not necessarily reflect the number of workers actually present on the labor market at any given moment. Additionally, statistical data can be interpreted and used in various ways. Minister Božinović himself made a distinction between foreign workers from third countries and workers from EU member states. Among the third-country foreign workers, according to MUP data, 38,100 were from Bosnia and Herzegovina and 27,988 from Serbia in 2024, which illustrates the complexity of interpreting figures often used in political and public discourse.
From all the above, it follows that the claim about the number of foreign workers relative to the number of members of the Serbian national minority in Croatia cannot be determined with certainty based on available data. While the number of residence and work permits issued in 2024 indeed exceeds the number of Serbian minority members according to the census, the number of issued permits and the number of workers actually present are neither identical nor directly comparable. Therefore, the claim in the form it was made cannot be considered grounded in precise and directly comparable data.
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